Georgia Republicans are counting on Rick Jackson to save them from a wipeout in November — if President Donald Trump doesn’t get in the way.

The billionaire health care executive and political newcomer has spent nearly $200 million since he entered the Georgia governor’s race earlier this year. That’s boosted GOP hopes as many in the party have all but given up on the state’s marquee Senate race, where Rep. Mike Collins is struggling to close the gap against a formidably well-funded Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff. Republicans worry that their open contests for attorney general and lieutenant governor as well as control of the state general assembly could be in peril in a larger blue wave.

But Jackson’s deep pockets are being tested against a difficult political environment for Republicans, weighed down by unpopular Trump actions, including the war in Iran. And some in the GOP worry that the president’s repeated visits to Georgia could only make the situation worse.

“I don’t know that Trump coming helps Republicans more so than it excites Democrats, especially in a wave election year, and so becomes and becomes a catch-22 for Republican candidates,” said Jason Shepherd, a former Cobb County chair who is supporting Jackson.

One Georgia-based Republican strategist who is not involved in the gubernatorial race posited that Trump’s dual appearances in the state almost certainly did more harm than help. They, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak openly about the race to avoid reprisals.

“Every piece of data that I’ve seen, it is not MAGA Republicans that are unmotivated to vote in this election,” the person said. “All the data that I’ve seen is that the undecideds in our marquee races, and specifically in the governor’s race, have a very, very negative opinion of the president. So, I can’t really rationalize a case for how it would be helpful.”

Jackson, for his part, has carefully navigated his relationship with the president and has not publicly broken with him on policy like other battleground Republicans. But he has not mentioned the president in any of the nearly 150 ads he’s run in the general election, according to an analysis of data from tracking firm AdImpact. Shortly after the RNC announced that Trump would return to the state this weekend, Jackson’s team said in a statement that the candidate will be campaigning in a different part of Georgia.

And during his only televised gubernatorial debate on Oct. 6 against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, Jackson never name-dropped the president — despite his opponent invoking Trump’s name eight times. Instead, the Republican mentioned popular outgoing GOP Gov. Brian Kemp five times and focused on Bottoms’ tenure as mayor of Atlanta during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“It’s been proven time and again that when the message is on Georgia, and the results under Brian Kemp and the conservative vision and road map that’s been laid out here, that we win in Georgia. When the focus is on D.C. and personal politics, we lose,” said Cole Muzio, president of the conservative Frontline Policy Action group. 

The Jackson campaign declined to comment for this story.

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement.

Natalie Baldassarre, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, said in a statement that Republicans “are laser focused on winning, and our candidates will run the races necessary to best represent their districts and prevent Democrats from taking control.”

Jackson is one of several Republicans across the country who now must balance between keeping the president close enough to turn out Republican base voters, but not so closely as to alienate the center.

Though many Georgia Republicans see Jackson as their de-facto ticket-topper, they don’t see his win as a guarantee against Bottoms, the former Atlanta mayor, in a finicky battleground state like Georgia. Jackson has outspent Bottoms nearly 5-to-1 in the final stretch of the race but still remains in a close race in public polling.

And yet, without him, Republicans fear the bottom would have already fallen out on races up and down the ballot, given how poorly Collins is performing in polls against Ossoff. Republicans’ top Senate super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, was dark in Georgia last week, a sign the race may be slipping out of reach.

“If Rick Jackson weren’t running, we would all be in a lot of trouble,” said Stephen Lawson, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and Jackson ally. “He’s our best hope at keeping the state red.”

A second Georgia-based Republican strategist, who is working on other races in the state, underscored how Jackson’s money is keeping the party afloat. “There is no question in my mind that without the extra $150 million he spent in his general election, that the ticket would be lost,” this person said. “That is the only reason there’s still a fight to be had.”

But, this person cautioned, the race is still very much a toss-up, and Jackson’s victory will rely on a large share of Georgia voters choosing to split their ballots between Ossoff for Senate and Jackson for governor.

Jackson’s allies are optimistic that a significant number of voters will do just that. A private statewide poll reviewed by POLITICO found that roughly 19% of Georgia voters say they are definitely or likely to cast a vote for at least one Democrat and one Republican — a potentially significant pool of crossover voters that could power two very different results in the marquee contests.

Whether the sheer force of Jackson’s spending will prove successful enough to overcome Trump is a microcosm of the larger issue his party is experiencing across the country: National Republicans, flush with cash, hold an enormous financial advantage over Democrats. But money alone may not be enough to insulate candidates in battlegrounds or even in traditionally red territory.

“I don’t know that Republicans across the country should feel as bullish about the cash influx that we’ve gotten because it didn’t work here,” said the first GOP operative. “In terms of actively moving races in our favor, it at least didn’t work here.”

In the last month, as Bottoms began to spend more heavily on the air amid Jackson’s spending advantage, her campaign has noted that polling has started to move marginally in her favor — even if the race remains largely within the margin of error. Her high name ID, as well as cash spent after the primary to define her early, are helping.

“Rick Jackson has spent $200 million in this campaign but all the money in the world can’t hide the fact that he would be a lackey for Donald Trump,” TaNisha Cameron, a spokesperson for Bottoms, said in a statement. “Despite being outspent, Keisha’s message is breaking through and she has the momentum in this race right when it matters.”

Jackson is making more of an effort to tie himself closely to Kemp, who won over moderates and independents in his 2022 reelection for governor and has an approval rating that sits 30 points higher than the president’s in Georgia, according to a recent poll by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Kemp, for his part, has continued to be a presence on the trail for Jackson, including joining him on a statewide tour earlier this month and appearing in at least three TV ads for the campaign.

But Jackson’s pathway to victory requires him to not only secure crossover voters that may support Ossoff in the Senate race or the type of voters who broke for Kemp, but also turn out the MAGA base who powered the president’s two presidential victories in the perennial battleground.

The president is intent on still showing up for him.

Shortly after Jackson dispatched Trump’s initially preferred candidate, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, in June’s primary runoff, the president was quick to praise Jackson as standing “strong with ‘TRUMP.’” And in subsequent posts on Truth Social, Trump has called the health care executive a “good friend.”

Trump, onstage Friday, called Jackson a “great businessman,” before adding: “I’ve been watching you, you are good, and he never did this before. He did it because he wants to straighten out things and he’s an amazing, an amazing story.”

Aaron Pellish contributed to this report. 

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